On State of Our Affairs

दम की बात

मुझे शर्म है कि

यह दशा है अपने देश की-

दबी सांसो से दबी आवाज़ 

में गरज़ने का दम नहीं

दबे सच को आकाश 

चीरने का दम नहीं

नहीं बारिश की जोश में

दीवालों को पिघलाने का दम

कायरो की बस्ती में 

नूर को बसने का भी दम नहीं

आज कल रातो में तारो

को चमकने का भी दम नहीं

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I Witness - A Revolution Brewing

I am just returning from a protest at IISc. This by itself is a highly unusual phenomena. IISc invariably lives on periphery of real life, impervious to events regional, national or global. Only cricket warrants a more engaged response with soft conversations over lunch at Faculty Club or over filter coffee at Prakruti.

Instead, today's candle light vigil in support of India Aginst Corruption, and a more viable Jan Lokpal rang out with shouts of 'Vande Matram', ' Jai Hind', ' Anna - Hum Tumahre Sath Hai'. A couple of hundred members of the IISc community participated in a strong show of solidarity and support to a movement that has, over last many months, grasped the imagination of the educated, comfortable, upwardly mobile middle class.

Corruption in India is all encompassing and also deeply entrenched into the very fabric of our socio-political life, and our very bureaucratised governance.  It affects life at all socio-economic levels and from individual to societal, from micro to a very macro level, driving everything from small sums shelved out to the police by  homeless, to be allowed to sleep on streets... to the well publicised 2G scam and the CWG in Delhi 2011. It is one systemic societal ill that is truly all pervasive, irrespective of class, caste, religion, gender, region...I think I have it all covered. Corruption directs our development, and governs our goals and priorities - at all levels from individual to state to national.

Anna Hazare brought the issue to the centre stage of our national life, in sharp focus, and under scrutiny of a brilliant limelight. People woke up and responded to the call for India Against Corruption and poured out into streets and central spaces - like at IISc today.

Yet the story is not this simple - no story in India is ever simple. To a wave of euphoric, increasing and resolute movement behind Anna Hazare, or really just the idea of a Corruption Free India, there is a swelling tide of clamoring voices - against this whole movement and its validity, value and its authority to represent all the varied factions, hues, colors, communities of this mela, that we call India. It is an opposition to largest protests seen in recent history; directed not against the concept of a Corrupt-Free India - but against the mere mortals who have chosen to take up this battle. No one in India is saying today " Corruption is good for this country, lets keep it.." What people are saying in a variety of ways is a combination of true/untrue, relevant/irrelevant, and trivial to deeply derogatory and definitely uncalled for.

" Anna is RSS and the movement is prominently Hindutva, and right winged;
"Kiran Bedi advertises fairness creams";
"IAC movement is Upper Caste, Upper Class, Urban People, corporate media, religious right wing etc."
"Is Anna with Irom? and what about all those other equally or more relevant fast-unto-deaths?"

There is great suspicion and nervousness around the Jan Lokpal and its short coming. So to all the detractors of Jan Lokpal bill in its current form, or to critics of Anna Hazare, Kiran Bedi or real questionables like Ramdev or Sri Sri...here is my take on all of this:


The question is not whether Anna has done wrong in his long past, or whether Kiran Bedi has made some lucrative choices - none of these are even relevant. When a fool like Ramdev grasps an opportunity or Shri Shri rushes to Ramlila grounds - it is unnecessary to focus on these people or their histories. The primary question is whether this particular battle needs to be fought and should it have all our support, if not active participation.

Further, Anna did not create the movement - the support his cause garnered did. It found resonance within a certain class/caste/types of people. Anna chose the cause - if this had not struck a sympathetic chord with our  public, Anna could have himself fasted unto death and no one would have cared. So we can only blame ourselves, the citizens of this nation, for letting Irom Sharmila fast this long or for the fasting-to-death of Swami Nigamananda in trying to save Ganga.

We have become very adept at 'othering' in India - the question is usually not what others or the government do or not do, the question is what did we do when witnessing a wrong, a fight against wrong, or a fight for right ? fight for justice? Did we stand up in solidarity, re-prioritise our individual comforts and responsibilities? did we step out into the streets?


On the issue of Jan Lokpal, in a recent talk by Prashant Bhushan in Bangalore, I got a distinct feeling that all was not yet cast in stone with the proposed bill. The only way to change it for a better, more secular, democratic Jan Lokpal would be for all diverse communities, that are avoiding the movement because of its present constituency, to jump in, join, entrench, interfere and demand that their concerns (legitimate or otherwise) be addressed. Being Anti-Corruption is not proprietorial to either Anna Hazare, his current set of supporters or to any other set of people who choose to appropriate this cause...[just like the anti-nuclear movement at Jaitapur did not become BJP despite strong RSS backing for the people's cause]. However, like any movement, its nature will be shaped by those that participate, appropriate and formulate it. Thus it would make most sense for Dalit movements, slum organisations, Christian, Muslim and other minority relegious outfits, left leaning political parties and a variety of organisations to join and add variety, chaos, diversity to this movement and by doing so, change its course.

Finally, it occurs to me that, as in all other commentaries or issues, " What is without is also within". We as a nation are corrupt, corruptible or envious of others' opportunities to be corrupt. Lets face it guys - our politicians, bureaucrats, police, legal systems, administrators are all a subset of this set that we call us - and our nation. An immoral govt. would not arise from a pure and moral society nor a moral governance last in an immoral nation. So we are it! Lets not constantly shy from taking responsibility, become stone pelters at others' blames and faults - lets just seek to view who we are and join a revolution which is long overdue - both within and without.

Leaving POSCO site, Odisha

दम की बात

मुझे शर्म है कि-

दबी सांसो कि दबी आवाज़ को गरजने का दम नहीं

दबे सच को आकाश चीर डालने का दम नही

नहीं गीतों में दीवारों को पिघला देने का दम

कायरो कि बस्ती में नूर को बसने का  दम नहीं

आज कल रातो में तारो को चमकने का भी दम नहीं!

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Embers of imagination light a million stars in an infinite universe.

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Irrepressible and indomitable nature of hope keeps darkest nights at bay.

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BS Yeddyurappa versus Navin Patnaik

It almost hurts to say anything half decent about this State's CM - and yet I must. Especially so as I set out for Odisha and contemplate the situations there.

I am headed to the POSCO site in Odisha. Over the last six years, the inhabitants of  a few villages there have challenged the might of a State which has used all its means to brutally evict villagers from their lands. The police batallions have shot and - killed, maimed, injured; ruthlessly lathi-charged unarmed citizens; and felled trees of forests integral to their livelihoods. And all this so that the State may hand over these lands to POSCO - a Korean company that wants to put up a giant steel plant here.

It is a battle between the Davids and Goliaths of the modern world - of small people and their ordinary lives disrupted by the mighty nexus of corporate greed and corrupt state which will stop at nothing to 'develop' this nation.

Now all have taken to battleground - men and women, young children and infirm old. They sit face to face with police platoons, protecting their lands, lives, and right to their own destiny from monsters of others' greeds.

As I head out to Odisha tomorrow, I wonder if Navin Patnaik realises the gravity of his actions? Of the suffering he inflicts on his people? Can wrong means ever justify any end? even an arguably right one? Whose interests are our leaders elected to safeguard? Ours or Theirs?

Then it occurs to me that the recent statements by BS Yeddyurappa on 'no forceful evictions'  are highly unusual, unexpected and hopeful for a new trend in the relation of a State with its people. That BSY has backed out of having a POSCO plant come up in Mundargi taluk, Karnataka - where substantial numbers of farmers are unwilling to relinquish their lands - bodes well even for the nature of our development.

It really does not matter whether God, Seer, strategy or good sense lead him to these pronouncements. That he did it is enough - for now.

Karnataka State Human Rights Commission

A couple of days back, on our regular visit to the Karnataka State Human Rights Commission(KSHRC), Gowru and I picked up our copies of their 2009-2010 annual report. The day was very unusual. We had a long and sympathetic audience with SHRC chairperson Justice Nayak - I mean, the meeting was long and we were sympathetic to the plight of this man, who shouldered this august commission. It was apparent that with a modest staff and only recommending authority, his task was not easy.  We sat listening to him talk about the more than 5000 suo-moto cases that he had  filed, his fond association with PUCL stalwart like Kannabiran, his values on individual rights, his hopes with the nation's youth, his despair at the state of disrepair of the entire nationhood and its fast crumbling edifice. He spoke, intensely, passionately, in recognition of our kindred spirit; we had once again turned up to appeal to him, this time on behalf of beggars and destitutes, the most impoverished members of the society.

A simple perusal of their annual report showed more than a doubling in the annual  number of petitions received by the Commission from all districts of Karnataka, including Bangalore Urban/Rural. In fact in the March 2009-2010 period more than 8,800 complaints had been received by KSHRC.It seemed that an increasing number of people, organisations and communities were turning to our Human Rights' Commissions for directives, recommendations and solutions, to problems inflicted on them by the State, its police force and a burdened/ politicized judiciary.

When systems set up to uphold and enforce provisions of individual rights and civil liberties, enshrined in our constitution, fail and instead turn against the citizens whose interests they are established to serve, then the human rights' commissions become people's last frontier for hope or justice. While doing so, we fail to consider the strengths or weaknesses, intrinsic or deliberate, of such organisations. We also fail to grasp the enormity of our expectations - that we expect a small independent body functioning out of a office to redress the ills inflicted by a repressive state on human rights of any of its subjects. The investigative team at SHRC comprises a IGP and a DSP. That is the extent of its army - its strength. This and and an understanding of justice of its chairperson.

Today, I sat with a yellow highlighter and went through their annual report, page by page. All rulings (with an exception of a couple) with KSHRC recommendations end with 'awaiting complaince' or 'complaince report not received'...from the IGP, from Principal Secretary (Home Dept.), from Law and Commerce etc. etc. The annual report is one long compendium of justice served, but not implemented, from a castrated system established as a convenient cover by the State - to be ignored, deliberately and with impunity. How and who takes a state to task when it commits a continued series of wrongs against its citizens, improvises an impotent commission to verify the veracity of these wrongs, empowers it to rule on these wrongs  but finally ignores all its orders? What is one to do in a case like this?

In a recent misguided instance in Bangalore, a bunch of human rights organisations got together to vilify the HRC in general, and KSHRC in particular. Several examples were cited as to the ineffectiveness of this organisation. Some even went as far as to recommend abolishing the commission which served little purpose.
While one can understand and sympathize with frustrations and failures of dealing with SHRC, this is playing directly into the hands of a State which would have us redirect our angst against such a puny organisation; have it become the scapegoat of State's giant failures, malpractices and repressive actions.

The correct question to ask is why are so many cases being filed with SHRC? As Prabhakar Sinha, PUCL national President says "for wrongs committed within a state, we do have a giant complex machinery in place to approach and expect resolutions".  However, for wrongs committed by the State, we have limited recourse for seeking redemption or justice. National and State Human Rights Commission, despite their limited powers, were established to address and check misuse of powers, especially by the state. So a more appropriate question would be on how to empower HRCs to carry out their duties more effectively? How can SHRC's ruling be ensured of implementation? We need our commissions for precisely the roles that they were created for i.e. to provide independent checks on misuse of powers by State; for this, these commissions have to be strengthened, and empowered first, because who else will work in the interest of the citizens and at a minimum  say " A Wrong was Committed?"

Cycles or Schools

Recently, a friend was looking for a cycle for her domestic worker's daughter. I told her of the govt. scheme that gave free cycles to girl kids in schools. But this apparently comes with a caveat. The offer is only open to girls that attend the govt. schools. Now, even my friend's help knew that the govt. schools don't help much by the way of teaching. Her daughter goes to a private school, while she toils away in many homes,  as a domestic help, so that her girl-child might have a chance of a better future.

So, whats this business of supporting govt. schools, or getting supported only-if with a govt. school. Why a package deal? Why does any parent have to choose between a cycle or a school?

Nuclear Numbers and Statistics of Disaster

India's current capacity is 4,385 MW from its 20 nuclear reactors in five locations. It proposes to raise this contribution to 20,000 MW by 2020 and to a further 63,000 MW by 2032 - greater than twelve fold increase in a 21 year period. It will achieve this by an accelerated growth of its civil nuclear program, increasing both the number of sites and also the number of reactors per site. According to the World Nuclear Association, this increase is planned as follows:
                             Reactors    Power               Date  
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Under Construction       5       3650 MW          2012        
Planned                       18      15,700 MW        2021        
'Firmly' Proposed          39      45,000 MW        2023      
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With the increase in number of nuclear reactors comes the associated increase in risk of nuclear incidence. These have been calculated globally, but can also be done for the Indian scenario. Following the methodology given here, the probability of a severe nuclear accident (INES greater than 5) is got by assuming, conservatively, that there have been 4 such nuclear events over 15000 reactor-years for the 433 reactors operating world wide.  We get probability of one severe accident per reactor year as q=4/15000. The mean(m) number of accidents for any reactor number(N) over a duration (y) is then

m=qNy

Mean number of accident, m, expected over a 20 year period (y) is given below; p(>1) is the probability of atleast 1 severe accident in percentage over the same 20 years, following the method outlined in the reference.

For India Reactors             N              m             p>1       Yrs(m=1)
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Existing                            20             0.1           9.5%        187
+under contruction             25             0.13         12%         150
+ planned                          43             0.23         20%          87
+ proposed                        82             0.44         36%          45
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Thus the chance of a severe nuclear accident in India over a twenty year period is about 10% right now and increases systematically to a substantial risk  of 20% in the next 10 years, to high risk of 36% when all those proposed are operating, by 2023. Another way of expressing the same is to calculate, how many years it would take, on average, for one severe nuclear accident in India (i.e. for m=1, y=1/Nq). Currently, on average, we expect to have one such accident per 187 years; this number drops rapidly as we increase our arsenal of nuclear reactors, to an expectancy of once every 45 years, if all the proposed nuclear power reactors were to be built.

There are two caveats to bear in mind. The expert proponents of nuclear power would claim that the new generations of nuclear reactors come with advanced safety provisions and the number used of 4 accidents per total history(15000 reactor years) of all nuclear generators is an overestimate for future generation reactors. True; but accidents like Fukushima take place, not due to lack of safety features, but because of the unforseen that occured. In case of Fukushima, it was the failure of all 13 backup generators. Accidents happen not due to lack of preparation for the imagined, but because the un-imagined also occurs. Statistics, when used in risk analyses, give us an average estimate of most likely events.

Secondly, it is necessary to be aware that the cumulative risks for nuclear reactors grouped together in a particular location, increases the likelihood of simultaneous multiple event as in Fukushima. This has not been included in the calculation.

To summarise, India runs an ever increasing risk of a major nuclear disaster, as it seeks to foolishly exploit the potential of nuclear energy. This, when we have an almost infinite solar potential of 6000 million GWh of energy of every year shining freely upon us!