It almost hurts to say anything half decent about this State's CM - and yet I must. Especially so as I set out for Odisha and contemplate the situations there.
I am headed to the POSCO site in Odisha. Over the last six years, the inhabitants of a few villages there have challenged the might of a State which has used all its means to brutally evict villagers from their lands. The police batallions have shot and - killed, maimed, injured; ruthlessly lathi-charged unarmed citizens; and felled trees of forests integral to their livelihoods. And all this so that the State may hand over these lands to POSCO - a Korean company that wants to put up a giant steel plant here.
It is a battle between the Davids and Goliaths of the modern world - of small people and their ordinary lives disrupted by the mighty nexus of corporate greed and corrupt state which will stop at nothing to 'develop' this nation.
Now all have taken to battleground - men and women, young children and infirm old. They sit face to face with police platoons, protecting their lands, lives, and right to their own destiny from monsters of others' greeds.
As I head out to Odisha tomorrow, I wonder if Navin Patnaik realises the gravity of his actions? Of the suffering he inflicts on his people? Can wrong means ever justify any end? even an arguably right one? Whose interests are our leaders elected to safeguard? Ours or Theirs?
Then it occurs to me that the recent statements by BS Yeddyurappa on 'no forceful evictions' are highly unusual, unexpected and hopeful for a new trend in the relation of a State with its people. That BSY has backed out of having a POSCO plant come up in Mundargi taluk, Karnataka - where substantial numbers of farmers are unwilling to relinquish their lands - bodes well even for the nature of our development.
It really does not matter whether God, Seer, strategy or good sense lead him to these pronouncements. That he did it is enough - for now.
Wednesday, 20 July 2011
Wednesday, 1 June 2011
Karnataka State Human Rights Commission
A couple of days back, on our regular visit to the Karnataka State Human Rights Commission(KSHRC), Gowru and I picked up our copies of their 2009-2010 annual report. The day was very unusual. We had a long and sympathetic audience with SHRC chairperson Justice Nayak - I mean, the meeting was long and we were sympathetic to the plight of this man, who shouldered this august commission. It was apparent that with a modest staff and only recommending authority, his task was not easy. We sat listening to him talk about the more than 5000 suo-moto cases that he had filed, his fond association with PUCL stalwart like Kannabiran, his values on individual rights, his hopes with the nation's youth, his despair at the state of disrepair of the entire nationhood and its fast crumbling edifice. He spoke, intensely, passionately, in recognition of our kindred spirit; we had once again turned up to appeal to him, this time on behalf of beggars and destitutes, the most impoverished members of the society.
A simple perusal of their annual report showed more than a doubling in the annual number of petitions received by the Commission from all districts of Karnataka, including Bangalore Urban/Rural. In fact in the March 2009-2010 period more than 8,800 complaints had been received by KSHRC.It seemed that an increasing number of people, organisations and communities were turning to our Human Rights' Commissions for directives, recommendations and solutions, to problems inflicted on them by the State, its police force and a burdened/ politicized judiciary.
When systems set up to uphold and enforce provisions of individual rights and civil liberties, enshrined in our constitution, fail and instead turn against the citizens whose interests they are established to serve, then the human rights' commissions become people's last frontier for hope or justice. While doing so, we fail to consider the strengths or weaknesses, intrinsic or deliberate, of such organisations. We also fail to grasp the enormity of our expectations - that we expect a small independent body functioning out of a office to redress the ills inflicted by a repressive state on human rights of any of its subjects. The investigative team at SHRC comprises a IGP and a DSP. That is the extent of its army - its strength. This and and an understanding of justice of its chairperson.
Today, I sat with a yellow highlighter and went through their annual report, page by page. All rulings (with an exception of a couple) with KSHRC recommendations end with 'awaiting complaince' or 'complaince report not received'...from the IGP, from Principal Secretary (Home Dept.), from Law and Commerce etc. etc. The annual report is one long compendium of justice served, but not implemented, from a castrated system established as a convenient cover by the State - to be ignored, deliberately and with impunity. How and who takes a state to task when it commits a continued series of wrongs against its citizens, improvises an impotent commission to verify the veracity of these wrongs, empowers it to rule on these wrongs but finally ignores all its orders? What is one to do in a case like this?
In a recent misguided instance in Bangalore, a bunch of human rights organisations got together to vilify the HRC in general, and KSHRC in particular. Several examples were cited as to the ineffectiveness of this organisation. Some even went as far as to recommend abolishing the commission which served little purpose.
While one can understand and sympathize with frustrations and failures of dealing with SHRC, this is playing directly into the hands of a State which would have us redirect our angst against such a puny organisation; have it become the scapegoat of State's giant failures, malpractices and repressive actions.
The correct question to ask is why are so many cases being filed with SHRC? As Prabhakar Sinha, PUCL national President says "for wrongs committed within a state, we do have a giant complex machinery in place to approach and expect resolutions". However, for wrongs committed by the State, we have limited recourse for seeking redemption or justice. National and State Human Rights Commission, despite their limited powers, were established to address and check misuse of powers, especially by the state. So a more appropriate question would be on how to empower HRCs to carry out their duties more effectively? How can SHRC's ruling be ensured of implementation? We need our commissions for precisely the roles that they were created for i.e. to provide independent checks on misuse of powers by State; for this, these commissions have to be strengthened, and empowered first, because who else will work in the interest of the citizens and at a minimum say " A Wrong was Committed?"
A simple perusal of their annual report showed more than a doubling in the annual number of petitions received by the Commission from all districts of Karnataka, including Bangalore Urban/Rural. In fact in the March 2009-2010 period more than 8,800 complaints had been received by KSHRC.It seemed that an increasing number of people, organisations and communities were turning to our Human Rights' Commissions for directives, recommendations and solutions, to problems inflicted on them by the State, its police force and a burdened/ politicized judiciary.
When systems set up to uphold and enforce provisions of individual rights and civil liberties, enshrined in our constitution, fail and instead turn against the citizens whose interests they are established to serve, then the human rights' commissions become people's last frontier for hope or justice. While doing so, we fail to consider the strengths or weaknesses, intrinsic or deliberate, of such organisations. We also fail to grasp the enormity of our expectations - that we expect a small independent body functioning out of a office to redress the ills inflicted by a repressive state on human rights of any of its subjects. The investigative team at SHRC comprises a IGP and a DSP. That is the extent of its army - its strength. This and and an understanding of justice of its chairperson.
Today, I sat with a yellow highlighter and went through their annual report, page by page. All rulings (with an exception of a couple) with KSHRC recommendations end with 'awaiting complaince' or 'complaince report not received'...from the IGP, from Principal Secretary (Home Dept.), from Law and Commerce etc. etc. The annual report is one long compendium of justice served, but not implemented, from a castrated system established as a convenient cover by the State - to be ignored, deliberately and with impunity. How and who takes a state to task when it commits a continued series of wrongs against its citizens, improvises an impotent commission to verify the veracity of these wrongs, empowers it to rule on these wrongs but finally ignores all its orders? What is one to do in a case like this?
In a recent misguided instance in Bangalore, a bunch of human rights organisations got together to vilify the HRC in general, and KSHRC in particular. Several examples were cited as to the ineffectiveness of this organisation. Some even went as far as to recommend abolishing the commission which served little purpose.
While one can understand and sympathize with frustrations and failures of dealing with SHRC, this is playing directly into the hands of a State which would have us redirect our angst against such a puny organisation; have it become the scapegoat of State's giant failures, malpractices and repressive actions.
The correct question to ask is why are so many cases being filed with SHRC? As Prabhakar Sinha, PUCL national President says "for wrongs committed within a state, we do have a giant complex machinery in place to approach and expect resolutions". However, for wrongs committed by the State, we have limited recourse for seeking redemption or justice. National and State Human Rights Commission, despite their limited powers, were established to address and check misuse of powers, especially by the state. So a more appropriate question would be on how to empower HRCs to carry out their duties more effectively? How can SHRC's ruling be ensured of implementation? We need our commissions for precisely the roles that they were created for i.e. to provide independent checks on misuse of powers by State; for this, these commissions have to be strengthened, and empowered first, because who else will work in the interest of the citizens and at a minimum say " A Wrong was Committed?"
Tuesday, 31 May 2011
Cycles or Schools
Recently, a friend was looking for a cycle for her domestic worker's daughter. I told her of the govt. scheme that gave free cycles to girl kids in schools. But this apparently comes with a caveat. The offer is only open to girls that attend the govt. schools. Now, even my friend's help knew that the govt. schools don't help much by the way of teaching. Her daughter goes to a private school, while she toils away in many homes, as a domestic help, so that her girl-child might have a chance of a better future.
So, whats this business of supporting govt. schools, or getting supported only-if with a govt. school. Why a package deal? Why does any parent have to choose between a cycle or a school?
So, whats this business of supporting govt. schools, or getting supported only-if with a govt. school. Why a package deal? Why does any parent have to choose between a cycle or a school?
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
Nuclear Numbers and Statistics of Disaster
India's current capacity is 4,385 MW from its 20 nuclear reactors in five locations. It proposes to raise this contribution to 20,000 MW by 2020 and to a further 63,000 MW by 2032 - greater than twelve fold increase in a 21 year period. It will achieve this by an accelerated growth of its civil nuclear program, increasing both the number of sites and also the number of reactors per site. According to the World Nuclear Association, this increase is planned as follows:
Reactors Power Date
------------------------------------------------------------
Under Construction 5 3650 MW 2012
Planned 18 15,700 MW 2021
'Firmly' Proposed 39 45,000 MW 2023
------------------------------------------------------------
With the increase in number of nuclear reactors comes the associated increase in risk of nuclear incidence. These have been calculated globally, but can also be done for the Indian scenario. Following the methodology given here, the probability of a severe nuclear accident (INES greater than 5) is got by assuming, conservatively, that there have been 4 such nuclear events over 15000 reactor-years for the 433 reactors operating world wide. We get probability of one severe accident per reactor year as q=4/15000. The mean(m) number of accidents for any reactor number(N) over a duration (y) is then
m=qNy
Mean number of accident, m, expected over a 20 year period (y) is given below; p(>1) is the probability of atleast 1 severe accident in percentage over the same 20 years, following the method outlined in the reference.
For India Reactors N m p>1 Yrs(m=1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Existing 20 0.1 9.5% 187
+under contruction 25 0.13 12% 150
+ planned 43 0.23 20% 87
+ proposed 82 0.44 36% 45
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reactors Power Date
------------------------------------------------------------
Under Construction 5 3650 MW 2012
Planned 18 15,700 MW 2021
'Firmly' Proposed 39 45,000 MW 2023
------------------------------------------------------------
With the increase in number of nuclear reactors comes the associated increase in risk of nuclear incidence. These have been calculated globally, but can also be done for the Indian scenario. Following the methodology given here, the probability of a severe nuclear accident (INES greater than 5) is got by assuming, conservatively, that there have been 4 such nuclear events over 15000 reactor-years for the 433 reactors operating world wide. We get probability of one severe accident per reactor year as q=4/15000. The mean(m) number of accidents for any reactor number(N) over a duration (y) is then
m=qNy
Mean number of accident, m, expected over a 20 year period (y) is given below; p(>1) is the probability of atleast 1 severe accident in percentage over the same 20 years, following the method outlined in the reference.
For India Reactors N m p>1 Yrs(m=1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Existing 20 0.1 9.5% 187
+under contruction 25 0.13 12% 150
+ planned 43 0.23 20% 87
+ proposed 82 0.44 36% 45
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thus the chance of a severe nuclear accident in India over a twenty year period is about 10% right now and increases systematically to a substantial risk of 20% in the next 10 years, to high risk of 36% when all those proposed are operating, by 2023. Another way of expressing the same is to calculate, how many years it would take, on average, for one severe nuclear accident in India (i.e. for m=1, y=1/Nq). Currently, on average, we expect to have one such accident per 187 years; this number drops rapidly as we increase our arsenal of nuclear reactors, to an expectancy of once every 45 years, if all the proposed nuclear power reactors were to be built.
There are two caveats to bear in mind. The expert proponents of nuclear power would claim that the new generations of nuclear reactors come with advanced safety provisions and the number used of 4 accidents per total history(15000 reactor years) of all nuclear generators is an overestimate for future generation reactors. True; but accidents like Fukushima take place, not due to lack of safety features, but because of the unforseen that occured. In case of Fukushima, it was the failure of all 13 backup generators. Accidents happen not due to lack of preparation for the imagined, but because the un-imagined also occurs. Statistics, when used in risk analyses, give us an average estimate of most likely events.
Secondly, it is necessary to be aware that the cumulative risks for nuclear reactors grouped together in a particular location, increases the likelihood of simultaneous multiple event as in Fukushima. This has not been included in the calculation.
To summarise, India runs an ever increasing risk of a major nuclear disaster, as it seeks to foolishly exploit the potential of nuclear energy. This, when we have an almost infinite solar potential of 6000 million GWh of energy of every year shining freely upon us!
There are two caveats to bear in mind. The expert proponents of nuclear power would claim that the new generations of nuclear reactors come with advanced safety provisions and the number used of 4 accidents per total history(15000 reactor years) of all nuclear generators is an overestimate for future generation reactors. True; but accidents like Fukushima take place, not due to lack of safety features, but because of the unforseen that occured. In case of Fukushima, it was the failure of all 13 backup generators. Accidents happen not due to lack of preparation for the imagined, but because the un-imagined also occurs. Statistics, when used in risk analyses, give us an average estimate of most likely events.
Secondly, it is necessary to be aware that the cumulative risks for nuclear reactors grouped together in a particular location, increases the likelihood of simultaneous multiple event as in Fukushima. This has not been included in the calculation.
To summarise, India runs an ever increasing risk of a major nuclear disaster, as it seeks to foolishly exploit the potential of nuclear energy. This, when we have an almost infinite solar potential of 6000 million GWh of energy of every year shining freely upon us!
Friday, 20 May 2011
Digging Nuclear - Figures from a Stats Site
Looking for probability calculations for nuclear accidents, I stumbled upon these - made post Fukushima. The calculations are based on 19 nuclear incidences of various INES levels over 59 years and assumes a poisson distribution of events. Detailed explanations are given in the site itself.
Note that the above are already 'wrong' to the extent that we have had 4 INES 7 accidents in 25 years, or at least 2 such accidents (if we call all three related Fukushima events as 1 accident) in the last 25 years. So, the above can at best be taken as a conservative and a minimum event estimates.
Meanwhile, "The Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd has ruled out the probability of the calamitous events at the quake and tsunami-ravaged Fukushima nuclear power plant getting replicated" (ref).
For me, the question no longer is "Should India go nuclear?" This seems the right time to ask" Can the world afford to go nuclear?"
Note that the above are already 'wrong' to the extent that we have had 4 INES 7 accidents in 25 years, or at least 2 such accidents (if we call all three related Fukushima events as 1 accident) in the last 25 years. So, the above can at best be taken as a conservative and a minimum event estimates.
Meanwhile, "The Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd has ruled out the probability of the calamitous events at the quake and tsunami-ravaged Fukushima nuclear power plant getting replicated" (ref).
For me, the question no longer is "Should India go nuclear?" This seems the right time to ask" Can the world afford to go nuclear?"
Nuclear Expansion and Human Costs: 10% of India at Risk
Continuing an order-of-magnitude calculation for India based on population densities around nuclear plants, I can estimate, roughly, the population at risk due to proximity to a nuclear plant. For a 50 mile (ie 80km) evacuation radius around the current and proposed nuclear power plants in India, I essentially get an identical plot as in the first post on this issue except each number is 16 times larger ( from a squared area factor between 20 and 80 km radius). A sum total of all these amounts to a whopping 122 million i.e. 10% of India's current population. This is the population living at risk of a nuclear incidence.
Are we willing to risk so many?
Open Letter to PM, EM,CM
Re: Police Destruction for Forced Land Aquistion in POSCO Affected Communities
Dear Mr. Minister,
It is a matter of utter shame that I write to you as a citizen of this nation. I am referring to the large scale destruction of beetle vines by police in Polang village under supervision by district administration of Jagatsingpur. This after State's assurance to media that there would be no land acquisition on 18th May.
Are we reduced to this, that those we elect to govern us, trample individual rights in favor of a profiteering, corporatised development? What and who determines the right to life and livelihood of our poor and or its sacrifice? and can lives lost and communities destroyed be compensated by any national, financial aspirations like increasing our GDP?
As a citizen, I only require this of you: that you uphold the constitution and respect the individual human rights written into it, as your primary sacred duty. That you solemnly consider , in brotherhood, that the poor also have a right to life and choice; our national needs of development can then be tackled collectively, without demanding too large a sacrifice from a few. With urgency I demand that you remove all police force from the Balithutha area, and revoke the section 144 imposed on the area, immediately. Forceful land acquisition, without the approval of palli sabha, constitutes a violations of FRA 2006 and is condemned.
You have the authority to set right, the series of ills set into motion by you personally. I request you to urgently do so.
Sincerely,
Arati Chokshi
Dr. Arati Chokshi
Bangalore
080-2360-2466
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